Scenario Simulator
Adjust pathway intervention levers and project impact on diagnosis, treatment, progression, and commercial opportunity.
Intervention levers
Move sliders to model uplift vs. baseline.
Reflex serum tryptase ordering rate among allergy/immunology visits with SM-suspicion triggers.
Share of suspected SM patients tested for KIT D816V mutation.
Conversion of dermatology visits with mast-cell-skin findings into hematology referrals.
Conversion of unexplained GI symptom workups into hematology referrals.
Targeted compression of time from first SM-relevant signal to diagnosis.
Share of ED anaphylaxis events followed by tryptase / specialist follow-up within 30 days.
Share of AdvSM patients started on a targeted TKI within 90 days of diagnosis.
Cadence of repeat tryptase / KIT / bone marrow monitoring in diagnosed patients.
Sensitivity of claims-based patient finder rules for surfacing suspected SM.
Coverage of targeted HCP education on SM suspicion triggers and diagnostic pathway.
Projected impact vs. baseline
| Output | Baseline | Scenario | Δ | 90% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earlier diagnosis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Reduced time to dx | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Additional patients identified | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Additional biomarker tests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Additional hematology referrals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Additional AdvSM treated | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Fewer missed progressions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Reduced ED utilisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Reduced diagnostic churn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |
| Commercial opportunity | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M | $0.0M – $0.0M |
| Medical affairs opportunity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 – 1 |