Disease Transition Model
Claim-derived probabilistic state machine across symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and outcomes. Click a state to inspect its inbound and outbound transitions.
Cohort
2,000
Distinct pathways
175
Median path length
8
states traversed
Reach TKI
21%
Reach progression
10%
Pathway Sankey
Pre-diagnosis → Diagnosis → Treatment → Outcome
Pre-diagnosisDiagnosisTreatmentOutcome
Transition probability heatmap
Row = from, Column = to. Cell = p · n
| From \ To | Asymptomatic | Symptom proxy | Specialist workup | Tryptase tested | KIT / Bone marrow | ISM-low | ISM-high | SSM | AdvSM | MCL | Untreated | Anti-mediator | TKI | Combination | Stable on therapy | Progression | Discontinuation | Loss to follow-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asymptomatic | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Symptom proxy | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Specialist workup | 0.69 | 0.15 | 0.09 | |||||||||||||||
| Tryptase tested | 0.69 | 0.21 | 0.05 | |||||||||||||||
| KIT / Bone marrow | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.07 | |||||||||||||
| ISM-low | 0.20 | 0.73 | 0.06 | |||||||||||||||
| ISM-high | 0.16 | 0.64 | 0.20 | |||||||||||||||
| SSM | 0.86 | 0.14 | ||||||||||||||||
| AdvSM | 0.26 | 0.71 | ||||||||||||||||
| MCL | 0.27 | 0.70 | ||||||||||||||||
| Untreated | 0.97 | |||||||||||||||||
| Anti-mediator | 0.49 | 0.33 | 0.04 | 0.12 | ||||||||||||||
| TKI | 0.45 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.11 | ||||||||||||||
| Combination | 0.55 | 0.13 | 0.31 | |||||||||||||||
| Stable on therapy | ||||||||||||||||||
| Progression | 1.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Discontinuation | ||||||||||||||||||
| Loss to follow-up | 1.00 |
State detail
Click a state in the heatmap to inspect
No state selected.
Top observed pathways
Most frequent ordered state sequences in the cohort
| Pathway | Patients | Share | Median duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Stable on therapy | 77 | 3.9% | 338d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Stable on therapy | 71 | 3.5% | 350d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Combination → Stable on therapy | 70 | 3.5% | 386d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Loss to follow-up → Tryptase tested → KIT / Bone marrow | 68 | 3.4% | 169d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → KIT / Bone marrow → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Stable on therapy | 65 | 3.3% | 306d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Loss to follow-up | 61 | 3.0% | 65d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Combination → Stable on therapy | 60 | 3.0% | 395d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → ISM-low → Untreated → Discontinuation | 58 | 2.9% | 263d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → KIT / Bone marrow → ISM-low → Untreated → Discontinuation | 57 | 2.9% | 211d |
| Asymptomatic → Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → ISM-low → Untreated → Discontinuation | 56 | 2.8% | 235d |
Monte Carlo simulator
1,000 walks · avg 5.4 steps
Sample trajectories
- Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → KIT / Bone marrow → ISM-low → Untreated → Discontinuation
- Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Stable on therapy
- Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Tryptase tested → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → Combination → Discontinuation
- Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → ISM-low → Anti-mediator → TKI → Combination → Stable on therapy
- Symptom proxy → Specialist workup → Loss to follow-up